Betting Lines
| Spread | MRSH -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | GAST +195 MRSH -230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GAST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRSH +13 | 171 | Lost |
| Massey | MRSH -4.6 (-8.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.9 (+23.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRSH -3.6 (-9.4) | 143.7 (+27.3) | 34% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRSH -3.4 (-9.6) | 147.1 (+23.9) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRSH -4.0 (-9.0) | 146.5 (+24.5) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRSH -3.5 (-9.5) | 144.3 (+26.7) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | GAST 81 – 73 MRSH |
| Dec 31, 2025 | MRSH 84 – 80 GAST |
| Mar 7, 2025 | MRSH 79 – 76 GAST |
| Jan 31, 2025 | GAST 85 – 81 MRSH |
| Mar 8, 2024 | MRSH 86 – 74 GAST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GAST | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 12-6 |
| Home | 9-6 | 14-3 |
| Away | 3-11 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.7 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -9.2 (#312) | -1.2 (#179) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.31 (#282) | -0.33 (#206) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.86 (#300) | -0.43 (#201) |
| RPI | 0.448 (#262) | 0.483 (#202) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GAST | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.1% | 30.0% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.5% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 33.4% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.8% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 30.6% |
Game Analysis
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