Betting Lines
| Spread | MRSH -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | GAST +115 MRSH -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GAST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRSH +12 | 160 | Lost |
| Massey | GAST -2.2 (-14.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.9 (+11.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GAST -1.7 (-13.7) | 142.6 (+17.4) | 58% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRSH -0.1 (-11.9) | 144.5 (+15.5) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GAST -1.8 (-13.8) | 146.3 (+13.7) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GAST -1.9 (-13.9) | 141.8 (+18.2) | 60% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | GAST 81 – 73 MRSH |
| Dec 31, 2025 | MRSH 84 – 80 GAST |
| Mar 7, 2025 | MRSH 79 – 76 GAST |
| Jan 31, 2025 | GAST 85 – 81 MRSH |
| Jan 24, 2025 | MRSH 92 – 79 GAST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GAST | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 7-11 |
| Home | 9-5 | 8-7 |
| Away | 5-11 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.4 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.4 | 76.9 |
| Massey | -2.3 (#206) | -4.5 (#252) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.59 (#233) | -0.84 (#268) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.68 (#234) | -0.89 (#256) |
| RPI | 0.482 (#220) | 0.473 (#246) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GAST | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 39.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 13.7% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.2% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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