Betting Lines
| Spread | MRSH -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | MRSH -275 GAST +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRSH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRSH +3 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | MRSH -5.4 (-2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.4 (+1.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRSH -5.4 (-2.4) | 145.6 (+9.4) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRSH -4.0 (-1.0) | 147.3 (+7.7) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRSH -4.7 (-1.7) | 146.8 (+8.2) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRSH -5.3 (-2.3) | 146.3 (+8.7) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | GAST 81 – 73 MRSH |
| Dec 31, 2025 | MRSH 84 – 80 GAST |
| Jan 31, 2025 | GAST 85 – 81 MRSH |
| Jan 24, 2025 | MRSH 92 – 79 GAST |
| Mar 8, 2024 | MRSH 86 – 74 GAST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRSH | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 8-10 |
| Home | 14-3 | 9-6 |
| Away | 5-9 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 78.7 |
| Massey | -0.9 (#175) | -6.3 (#268) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.09 (#174) | -0.90 (#252) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.15 (#176) | -1.22 (#262) |
| RPI | 0.516 (#152) | 0.469 (#247) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRSH | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 13.0% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.7% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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