You scumbag, you maggot, you cheap lousy faggot "Fairytale of New York" - The Pogues
Marshall Thundering Herd
79 76
FINAL Neutral Conference Sun Belt
Georgia State Panthers
Sun Belt Conference · Pensacola Bay Center (Neutral) · March 7, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread MRSH -7.5 Away covered
O/U 150.5 Over
Money MRSH -275 / GAST +225
Model Predictions
Spread Total MRSH win
Actual MRSH +3 155 Won
Massey MRSH -5.4 (-2.4)
Massey Totals 153.4 (+1.6)
Bradley-Terry 69%
Weighted B-T 75%
Baseline Plus ML MRSH -5.1 (-2.1) 146.2 (+8.8) 78%
Model 4 ML MRSH -4.8 (-1.8) 147.4 (+7.6) 73%
Model 3 ML MRSH -6.1 (-3.1) 144.8 (+10.2) 75%
Baseline ML MRSH -5.9 (-2.9) 145.6 (+9.4) 75%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 10, 2026 GAST 8173 MRSH
Dec 31, 2025 MRSH 8480 GAST
Jan 31, 2025 GAST 8581 MRSH
Jan 24, 2025 MRSH 9279 GAST
Mar 8, 2024 MRSH 8674 GAST

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MRSH GAST
Overall 20-13 14-19
Conference 12-6 8-10
Home 14-3 9-6
Away 5-9 3-11
Neutral 1-1 2-2
Last 5 4-1 2-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 74.7 74.2
Avg Pts Against 72.5 78.7
Massey -0.9 (#175) -6.3 (#268)
Bradley-Terry -0.09 (#174) -0.90 (#252)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.15 (#176) -1.22 (#262)
RPI 0.516 (#152) 0.469 (#247)
Shooting & Four Factors MRSH GAST
FG% 44.1% 44.6%
3PT% 32.3% 34.2%
REB / G 36.6 37.7
OREB / G 11.9 11.6
AST / TO 1.20 1.02
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.5% 50.3%
TOV% 16.8% 17.0%
ORB% 32.3% 32.6%
FT Rate 23.7% 22.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.5% 51.4%
Opp TOV% 17.3% 13.0%
DRB% 70.6% 68.5%
Opp FT Rate 28.7% 18.7%

Game Analysis

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