Betting Lines
| Spread | MRSH -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | MRSH -1200 GAST +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRSH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GAST +4 | 166 | Lost |
| Massey | MRSH -12.1 (-16.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.6 (+15.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRSH -10.8 (-14.8) | 147.7 (+18.3) | 87% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRSH -9.2 (-13.2) | 152.0 (+14.0) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRSH -11.0 (-15.0) | 149.1 (+16.9) | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MRSH -10.6 (-14.6) | 148.2 (+17.8) | 87% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | GAST 81 – 73 MRSH |
| Dec 31, 2025 | MRSH 84 – 80 GAST |
| Mar 7, 2025 | MRSH 79 – 76 GAST |
| Jan 24, 2025 | MRSH 92 – 79 GAST |
| Mar 8, 2024 | MRSH 86 – 74 GAST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRSH | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 8-10 |
| Home | 14-3 | 9-6 |
| Away | 5-9 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 78.7 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#173) | -9.5 (#316) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.04 (#181) | -1.54 (#304) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.18 (#187) | -2.07 (#307) |
| RPI | 0.506 (#169) | 0.437 (#282) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRSH | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 33.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 12.8% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.1% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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