Betting Lines
| Spread | SPU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | MSM +105 SPU -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSM +5 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | SPU -1.1 (+6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.6 (-6.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SPU -1.2 (+6.2) | 137.6 (-2.6) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SPU -2.0 (+7.0) | 136.6 (-1.6) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SPU -1.4 (+6.4) | 136.6 (-1.6) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SPU -2.4 (+7.4) | 138.6 (-3.6) | 31% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | SPU 66 – 58 MSM |
| Feb 22, 2025 | MSM 69 – 58 SPU |
| Feb 2, 2025 | MSM 79 – 64 SPU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | SPU 70 – 65 MSM |
| Jan 7, 2024 | SPU 70 – 64 MSM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSM | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 17-12 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 14-6 |
| Home | 8-5 | 13-1 |
| Away | 7-11 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 69.1 |
| Massey | -10.3 (#313) | -5.6 (#248) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.68 (#304) | -0.47 (#215) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.31 (#308) | -1.06 (#240) |
| RPI | 0.421 (#306) | 0.488 (#196) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSM | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 38.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 44.2% |
| TOV% | 23.6% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 33.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 65.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.4% | 37.1% |
Game Analysis
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