Betting Lines
| Spread | MSM -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | MSM -185 SPU +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSM +11 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | MSM -4.3 (+6.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.0 (-1.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSM -2.8 (+8.2) | 130.3 (-3.3) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSM -4.0 (+7.0) | 132.3 (-5.3) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSM -4.2 (+6.8) | 132.4 (-5.4) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSM -3.6 (+7.4) | 129.8 (-2.8) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | SPU 66 – 58 MSM |
| Jan 10, 2026 | MSM 70 – 65 SPU |
| Feb 2, 2025 | MSM 79 – 64 SPU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | SPU 70 – 65 MSM |
| Jan 7, 2024 | SPU 70 – 64 MSM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSM | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 12-16 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 7-13 |
| Home | 10-4 | 6-6 |
| Away | 9-8 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 64.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 66.3 |
| Massey | -5.9 (#261) | -7.0 (#278) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.25 (#194) | -1.25 (#290) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.69 (#224) | -1.69 (#292) |
| RPI | 0.508 (#171) | 0.441 (#290) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSM | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 39.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 45.7% |
| TOV% | 21.9% | 22.3% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 38.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 29.6% |
Game Analysis
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