Betting Lines
| Spread | SPU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | SPU -278 MSM +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SPU +8 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | SPU -8.5 (-0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.5 (-15.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SPU -7.1 (+0.9) | 133.5 (-9.5) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SPU -7.1 (+0.9) | 133.3 (-9.3) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SPU -6.5 (+1.5) | 133.5 (-9.5) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SPU -7.5 (+0.5) | 132.8 (-8.8) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | MSM 70 – 65 SPU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | MSM 69 – 58 SPU |
| Feb 2, 2025 | MSM 79 – 64 SPU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | SPU 70 – 65 MSM |
| Jan 7, 2024 | SPU 70 – 64 MSM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SPU | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-12 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 11-9 |
| Home | 13-1 | 8-5 |
| Away | 4-10 | 7-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 71.0 |
| Massey | -4.3 (#236) | -9.7 (#306) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.12 (#187) | -1.18 (#276) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.41 (#203) | -1.62 (#278) |
| RPI | 0.497 (#187) | 0.449 (#264) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SPU | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.0% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 28.9% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.7% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 22.9% |
| ORB% | 36.7% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 28.1% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 66.4% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.1% | 28.5% |
Game Analysis
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