Betting Lines
| Spread | MSM -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | MSM -125 SPU +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SPU +5 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | MSM -2.2 (-7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.3 (+4.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSM -0.4 (-5.4) | 131.5 (+3.5) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSM -1.0 (-6.0) | 132.2 (+2.8) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MSM -0.4 (-5.4) | 133.5 (+1.5) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSM -0.9 (-5.9) | 133.1 (+1.9) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | SPU 66 – 58 MSM |
| Jan 10, 2026 | MSM 70 – 65 SPU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | MSM 69 – 58 SPU |
| Feb 2, 2025 | MSM 79 – 64 SPU |
| Jan 7, 2024 | SPU 70 – 64 MSM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSM | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 12-8 |
| Home | 8-5 | 8-5 |
| Away | 5-13 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 64.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 63.8 |
| Massey | -3.4 (#226) | -2.2 (#204) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.34 (#299) | -0.50 (#222) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.33 (#285) | -0.60 (#225) |
| RPI | 0.438 (#292) | 0.491 (#190) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSM | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 39.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 44.4% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 35.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 30.4% |
Game Analysis
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