Betting Lines
| Spread | SPU -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | SPU -140 MSM +118 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SPU +6 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | SPU -5.8 (+0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.2 (+4.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SPU -3.7 (+2.3) | 128.7 (+5.3) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SPU -4.8 (+1.2) | 131.1 (+2.9) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SPU -4.8 (+1.2) | 131.9 (+2.1) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SPU -4.8 (+1.2) | 131.7 (+2.3) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | SPU 66 – 58 MSM |
| Jan 10, 2026 | MSM 70 – 65 SPU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | MSM 69 – 58 SPU |
| Feb 2, 2025 | MSM 79 – 64 SPU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | SPU 70 – 65 MSM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SPU | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 9-11 |
| Home | 8-5 | 8-5 |
| Away | 8-8 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.6 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.8 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -0.2 (#171) | -1.9 (#203) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.26 (#157) | -1.27 (#288) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.42 (#144) | -1.44 (#276) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#169) | 0.426 (#300) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SPU | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.0% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.71 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.4% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 36.9% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 28.0% | 18.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.1% | 28.3% |
Game Analysis
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