Betting Lines
| Spread | SPU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
| Money | SPU -185 MSM +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSM +15 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | SPU -4.2 (-19.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.5 (+19.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SPU -1.4 (-16.4) | 126.9 (+16.1) | 56% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SPU -2.5 (-17.5) | 126.8 (+16.2) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SPU -1.0 (-16.0) | 127.7 (+15.3) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SPU -1.6 (-16.6) | 125.7 (+17.3) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | SPU 66 – 58 MSM |
| Jan 10, 2026 | MSM 70 – 65 SPU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | MSM 69 – 58 SPU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | SPU 70 – 65 MSM |
| Jan 7, 2024 | SPU 70 – 64 MSM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SPU | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-16 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 12-8 |
| Home | 6-6 | 10-4 |
| Away | 6-10 | 9-8 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.1 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 70.7 |
| Massey | -5.7 (#256) | -6.7 (#274) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.14 (#270) | -0.33 (#203) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.50 (#276) | -0.82 (#230) |
| RPI | 0.444 (#275) | 0.501 (#180) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SPU | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.6% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.4% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 22.4% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 37.5% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.8% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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