Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 169.5 Under |
| Money | AUB -135 ARK +114 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +22 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -0.2 (+22.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 177.2 (-9.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -1.2 (+20.8) | 165.6 (+2.4) | 45% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -1.5 (+20.5) | 168.1 (-0.1) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -1.2 (+20.8) | 168.8 (-0.8) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -0.7 (+21.3) | 167.8 (+0.2) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | ARK 88 – 75 AUB |
| Feb 20, 2025 | AUB 67 – 60 ARK |
| Jan 6, 2024 | AUB 83 – 51 ARK |
| Mar 10, 2023 | ARK 76 – 73 AUB |
| Jan 8, 2023 | AUB 72 – 59 ARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-16 | 28-9 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 13-5 |
| Home | 14-4 | 17-1 |
| Away | 2-8 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.0 | 90.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.8 | 81.0 |
| Massey | 13.4 (#39) | 17.2 (#23) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.90 (#51) | 3.20 (#20) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.09 (#37) | 4.69 (#16) |
| RPI | 0.595 (#42) | 0.618 (#26) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 48.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 39.2% |
| REB / G | 38.9 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 14.7 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 56.5% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 13.6% |
| ORB% | 40.4% | 34.0% |
| FT Rate | 33.2% | 32.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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