Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | AUB -2000 ARK +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +7 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | AUB -16.4 (-9.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.2 (-24.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -14.8 (-7.8) | 150.7 (-23.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -13.7 (-6.7) | 150.1 (-23.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -14.6 (-7.6) | 154.1 (-27.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -15.1 (-8.1) | 152.7 (-25.7) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | ARK 88 – 75 AUB |
| Jan 10, 2026 | AUB 95 – 73 ARK |
| Jan 6, 2024 | AUB 83 – 51 ARK |
| Mar 10, 2023 | ARK 76 – 73 AUB |
| Jan 8, 2023 | AUB 72 – 59 ARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-6 | 22-14 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 8-10 |
| Home | 13-2 | 13-4 |
| Away | 8-2 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 11-2 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.0 | 76.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 71.4 |
| Massey | 26.9 (#1) | 13.7 (#35) |
| Bradley-Terry | 5.13 (#1) | 2.16 (#43) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.23 (#1) | 2.86 (#40) |
| RPI | 0.711 (#1) | 0.558 (#73) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.5% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.86 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.2% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 13.1% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 35.4% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.0% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.4% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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