Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | AUB -150 ARK +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +13 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -0.6 (+13.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.0 (-6.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -0.2 (+12.8) | 139.5 (-8.5) | 54% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -1.2 (+11.8) | 137.2 (-6.2) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -0.5 (+12.5) | 137.5 (-6.5) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -0.7 (+12.3) | 137.4 (-6.4) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | ARK 88 – 75 AUB |
| Jan 10, 2026 | AUB 95 – 73 ARK |
| Feb 20, 2025 | AUB 67 – 60 ARK |
| Jan 6, 2024 | AUB 83 – 51 ARK |
| Mar 10, 2023 | ARK 76 – 73 AUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 22-14 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 8-10 |
| Home | 14-2 | 14-3 |
| Away | 4-8 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 67.9 |
| Massey | 10.1 (#41) | 14.9 (#12) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.87 (#43) | 2.56 (#19) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.24 (#54) | 3.45 (#12) |
| RPI | 0.621 (#19) | 0.652 (#5) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 48.5% |
| 3PT% | 28.9% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 39.4 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 13.7 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 38.0% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.5% | 46.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 24.2% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 76.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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