Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -1.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | AUB +130 ARK -155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +3 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | ARK -1.6 (-1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.2 (+9.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -0.7 (-3.7) | 144.1 (+4.9) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -0.9 (-2.1) | 143.8 (+5.2) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -1.4 (-1.6) | 145.8 (+3.2) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -0.6 (-2.4) | 145.0 (+4.0) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | ARK 88 – 75 AUB |
| Jan 10, 2026 | AUB 95 – 73 ARK |
| Feb 20, 2025 | AUB 67 – 60 ARK |
| Jan 6, 2024 | AUB 83 – 51 ARK |
| Jan 8, 2023 | AUB 72 – 59 ARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 22-14 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 8-10 |
| Home | 14-2 | 14-3 |
| Away | 4-8 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 67.9 |
| Massey | 12.2 (#30) | 13.8 (#15) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.99 (#36) | 1.89 (#40) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.43 (#38) | 2.39 (#41) |
| RPI | 0.594 (#24) | 0.588 (#31) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.2% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.4% | 27.4% |
Game Analysis
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