Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 165.5 Under |
| Money | ARK -360 AUB +285 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +13 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -7.0 (+6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 171.6 (-8.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -6.0 (+7.0) | 164.0 (-1.0) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -6.0 (+7.0) | 167.9 (-4.9) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -7.3 (+5.7) | 163.4 (-0.4) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -7.3 (+5.7) | 162.7 (+0.3) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | AUB 95 – 73 ARK |
| Feb 20, 2025 | AUB 67 – 60 ARK |
| Jan 6, 2024 | AUB 83 – 51 ARK |
| Mar 10, 2023 | ARK 76 – 73 AUB |
| Jan 8, 2023 | AUB 72 – 59 ARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 22-16 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 7-11 |
| Home | 17-1 | 14-4 |
| Away | 5-5 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | W5 |
| Avg Pts For | 90.2 | 83.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.0 | 78.8 |
| Massey | 19.7 (#14) | 15.6 (#32) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.10 (#22) | 2.42 (#36) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.04 (#21) | 3.55 (#29) |
| RPI | 0.635 (#15) | 0.606 (#30) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.2% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 13.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.84 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.7% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 12.9% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 38.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 34.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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