Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -2.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.0 Under |
| Money | ARK +115 AUB -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +32 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | AUB -5.4 (-26.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.4 (-25.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -4.6 (-27.4) | 154.0 (-20.0) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -3.8 (-28.2) | 151.6 (-17.6) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -3.7 (-28.3) | 154.1 (-20.1) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -4.2 (-27.8) | 154.8 (-20.8) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | ARK 88 – 75 AUB |
| Jan 10, 2026 | AUB 95 – 73 ARK |
| Feb 20, 2025 | AUB 67 – 60 ARK |
| Mar 10, 2023 | ARK 76 – 73 AUB |
| Jan 8, 2023 | AUB 72 – 59 ARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 13-5 |
| Home | 11-6 | 15-1 |
| Away | 2-7 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 7-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.8 | 83.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.8 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 6.1 (#85) | 15.8 (#15) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.30 (#80) | 2.23 (#33) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.63 (#82) | 2.84 (#32) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#94) | 0.611 (#27) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 40.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 35.9% |
| FT Rate | 34.9% | 29.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 44.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.1% | 27.7% |
Game Analysis
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