Betting Lines
| Spread | ALST -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | ALST -325 JKST +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JKST +11 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | ALST -14.4 (-25.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.6 (-19.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALST -12.9 (-23.9) | 151.4 (-12.4) | 87% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALST -10.3 (-21.3) | 149.6 (-10.6) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALST -11.2 (-22.2) | 151.6 (-12.6) | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ALST -11.3 (-22.3) | 151.0 (-12.0) | 86% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 16, 2025 | ALST 60 – 56 JKST |
| Jan 11, 2025 | JKST 77 – 70 ALST |
| Jan 12, 2024 | JKST 73 – 63 ALST |
| Jan 7, 2023 | JKST 61 – 58 ALST |
| Jan 8, 2022 | ALST 72 – 57 JKST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALST | JKST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 10-8 |
| Home | 5-4 | 7-3 |
| Away | 4-15 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.6 | 83.8 |
| Massey | -8.8 (#297) | -19.5 (#361) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.51 (#293) | -2.24 (#328) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.11 (#298) | -3.17 (#335) |
| RPI | 0.449 (#266) | 0.427 (#294) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALST | JKST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 37.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 29.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 44.8% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 23.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.5% | 58.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 62.9% | 59.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.7% | 29.1% |
Game Analysis
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