Betting Lines
| Spread | JKST -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | JKST -300 ALST +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JKST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JKST +3 | 119 | Won |
| Massey | JKST -7.9 (-4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.0 (-26.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JKST -2.3 (+0.7) | 146.4 (-27.4) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JKST -4.3 (-1.3) | 144.9 (-25.9) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JKST -3.4 (-0.4) | 144.8 (-25.8) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JKST -3.8 (-0.8) | 144.2 (-25.2) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | JKST 75 – 64 ALST |
| Mar 16, 2025 | ALST 60 – 56 JKST |
| Jan 11, 2025 | JKST 77 – 70 ALST |
| Jan 12, 2024 | JKST 73 – 63 ALST |
| Jan 8, 2022 | ALST 72 – 57 JKST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JKST | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 6-12 |
| Home | 7-2 | 5-5 |
| Away | 6-14 | 2-18 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.6 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -8.4 (#314) | -12.0 (#346) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.22 (#294) | -1.40 (#301) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.67 (#336) | -1.84 (#304) |
| RPI | 0.451 (#268) | 0.434 (#295) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JKST | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 35.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 40.1% |
| TOV% | 24.1% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 15.2% | 18.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.2% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.5% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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