Betting Lines
| Spread | JKST -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | JKST -140 ALST +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JKST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALST +4 | 116 | Lost |
| Massey | JKST -0.4 (-4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.9 (-29.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JKST -1.6 (-5.6) | 142.1 (-26.1) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JKST -0.8 (-4.8) | 140.1 (-24.1) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | JKST -0.8 (-4.8) | 140.2 (-24.2) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JKST -0.8 (-4.8) | 142.5 (-26.5) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | JKST 75 – 64 ALST |
| Jan 11, 2025 | JKST 77 – 70 ALST |
| Jan 12, 2024 | JKST 73 – 63 ALST |
| Jan 7, 2023 | JKST 61 – 58 ALST |
| Jan 8, 2022 | ALST 72 – 57 JKST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JKST | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 20-16 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 12-6 |
| Home | 8-1 | 8-3 |
| Away | 6-15 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -6.3 (#271) | -6.7 (#276) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.75 (#240) | -0.99 (#259) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.95 (#241) | -1.66 (#289) |
| RPI | 0.522 (#131) | 0.486 (#207) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JKST | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 13.3% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.5% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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