Betting Lines
| Spread | JKST -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALST +15 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | JKST -1.4 (+16.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.3 (-2.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JKST -2.4 (+17.4) | 133.2 (-4.2) | 40% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JKST -2.0 (+17.0) | 133.9 (-4.9) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JKST -2.5 (+17.5) | 132.3 (-3.3) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | JKST -1.9 (+16.9) | 133.4 (-4.4) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | JKST 75 – 64 ALST |
| Mar 16, 2025 | ALST 60 – 56 JKST |
| Jan 11, 2025 | JKST 77 – 70 ALST |
| Jan 12, 2024 | JKST 73 – 63 ALST |
| Jan 7, 2023 | JKST 61 – 58 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALST | JKST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-21 | 11-19 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 9-9 |
| Home | 6-6 | 6-3 |
| Away | 3-15 | 5-15 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | W2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 60.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 65.4 |
| Massey | -8.8 (#304) | -3.4 (#236) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.50 (#336) | -0.65 (#234) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.49 (#336) | -0.87 (#235) |
| RPI | 0.416 (#301) | 0.493 (#183) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALST | JKST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 38.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.59 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 43.2% |
| TOV% | 24.2% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 13.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 65.5% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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