Betting Lines
| Spread | JKST -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | JKST -155 ALST +135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JKST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JKST +7 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | JKST -0.7 (+6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.0 (-5.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALST -0.2 (+7.2) | 148.0 (-1.0) | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JKST -0.8 (+6.2) | 145.8 (+1.2) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALST -0.4 (+7.4) | 146.4 (+0.6) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ALST -0.5 (+7.5) | 148.0 (-1.0) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | JKST 75 – 64 ALST |
| Mar 16, 2025 | ALST 60 – 56 JKST |
| Jan 12, 2024 | JKST 73 – 63 ALST |
| Jan 7, 2023 | JKST 61 – 58 ALST |
| Jan 8, 2022 | ALST 72 – 57 JKST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JKST | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 20-16 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 12-6 |
| Home | 8-1 | 8-3 |
| Away | 6-15 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -9.4 (#317) | -6.1 (#271) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.90 (#325) | -0.82 (#249) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.65 (#327) | -1.20 (#256) |
| RPI | 0.473 (#218) | 0.448 (#269) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JKST | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.2% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 29.1% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.59 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.4% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 21.6% | 13.5% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 25.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.8% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 66.8% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 29.2% |
Game Analysis
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