Betting Lines
| Spread | JKST -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | ALST +120 JKST -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JKST +10 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | ALST -4.4 (-14.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.8 (-7.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALST -2.6 (-12.6) | 143.4 (-7.4) | 64% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALST -2.1 (-12.1) | 143.7 (-7.7) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALST -2.3 (-12.3) | 142.0 (-6.0) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ALST -2.5 (-12.5) | 141.6 (-5.6) | 62% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | JKST 75 – 64 ALST |
| Mar 16, 2025 | ALST 60 – 56 JKST |
| Jan 11, 2025 | JKST 77 – 70 ALST |
| Jan 7, 2023 | JKST 61 – 58 ALST |
| Jan 8, 2022 | ALST 72 – 57 JKST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALST | JKST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 11-7 |
| Home | 7-5 | 6-2 |
| Away | 3-13 | 7-13 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 75.6 |
| Massey | -5.4 (#265) | -5.8 (#273) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.38 (#209) | -0.19 (#195) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.53 (#218) | -0.76 (#231) |
| RPI | 0.518 (#146) | 0.503 (#168) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALST | JKST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.4% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.8% | 46.8% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 65.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.6% | 27.8% |
Game Analysis
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