Betting Lines
| Spread | ASU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 169.5 Over |
| Money | ASU -122 KSU +102 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ASU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ASU +3 | 171 | Won |
| Massey | KSU -0.3 (+3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 169.7 (+1.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ASU -1.2 (+1.8) | 164.5 (+6.5) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ASU -1.0 (+2.0) | 161.3 (+9.7) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ASU -1.1 (+1.9) | 159.5 (+11.5) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ASU -0.2 (+2.8) | 164.1 (+6.9) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2025 | KSU 71 – 66 ASU |
| Feb 23, 2025 | ASU 66 – 54 KSU |
| Feb 5, 2025 | KSU 71 – 70 ASU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ASU | KSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 3-15 |
| Home | 10-5 | 10-8 |
| Away | 2-9 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.3 | 79.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.3 | 81.8 |
| Massey | 5.8 (#103) | 9.8 (#62) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.56 (#69) | 1.84 (#56) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.19 (#66) | 2.12 (#69) |
| RPI | 0.564 (#73) | 0.573 (#63) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ASU | KSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.49 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 55.4% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 31.9% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.0% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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