Betting Lines
| Spread | KSU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | KSU -270 ASU +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KSU +5 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | KSU -0.5 (+4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.3 (-7.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KSU -1.3 (+3.7) | 141.9 (-4.9) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KSU -0.7 (+4.3) | 140.6 (-3.6) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | KSU -0.1 (+4.9) | 140.7 (-3.7) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KSU -0.5 (+4.5) | 142.5 (-5.5) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | ASU 87 – 84 KSU |
| Feb 23, 2025 | ASU 66 – 54 KSU |
| Feb 5, 2025 | KSU 71 – 70 ASU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KSU | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 4-16 |
| Home | 10-5 | 5-9 |
| Away | 3-9 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 76.8 |
| Massey | 8.8 (#66) | 8.4 (#68) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.37 (#72) | 1.22 (#79) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.75 (#70) | 1.61 (#76) |
| RPI | 0.530 (#121) | 0.539 (#100) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KSU | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 26.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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