Betting Lines
| Spread | LIU -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | LIU -1650 SFPA +950 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIU +4 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | LIU -21.6 (-17.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.3 (-24.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIU -15.1 (-11.1) | 148.8 (-18.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIU -14.2 (-10.2) | 149.1 (-19.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIU -16.0 (-12.0) | 149.9 (-19.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LIU -16.2 (-12.2) | 147.8 (-17.8) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | LIU 91 – 89 SFPA |
| Mar 8, 2025 | SFPA 71 – 68 LIU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | SFPA 74 – 64 LIU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | LIU 64 – 51 SFPA |
| Feb 4, 2024 | LIU 70 – 67 SFPA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LIU | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 7-24 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 5-13 |
| Home | 14-1 | 5-8 |
| Away | 10-9 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.6 | 70.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 83.1 |
| Massey | -1.5 (#191) | -19.4 (#359) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.06 (#179) | -2.74 (#345) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.10 (#178) | -4.15 (#354) |
| RPI | 0.511 (#149) | 0.398 (#338) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LIU | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 39.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 36.5% | 25.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 17.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 61.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 63.1% | 66.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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