Betting Lines
| Spread | LIU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | LIU -225 SFPA +190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIU +13 | 115 | Won |
| Massey | LIU -6.4 (+6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.0 (-23.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIU -4.2 (+8.8) | 133.4 (-18.4) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIU -4.4 (+8.6) | 133.9 (-18.9) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIU -4.1 (+8.9) | 133.3 (-18.3) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LIU -4.6 (+8.4) | 134.5 (-19.5) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | LIU 91 – 89 SFPA |
| Jan 10, 2026 | LIU 67 – 63 SFPA |
| Mar 8, 2025 | SFPA 71 – 68 LIU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | SFPA 74 – 64 LIU |
| Feb 4, 2024 | LIU 70 – 67 SFPA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LIU | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 12-4 | 8-8 |
| Home | 10-5 | 10-4 |
| Away | 7-9 | 6-13 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.5 | 68.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 73.4 |
| Massey | -7.5 (#288) | -10.2 (#323) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.13 (#272) | -1.22 (#281) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.47 (#278) | -1.78 (#297) |
| RPI | 0.453 (#258) | 0.452 (#261) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LIU | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.0% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 24.6% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 14.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.0% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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