Betting Lines
| Spread | LIU -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | SFPA +360 LIU -470 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFPA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIU +2 | 180 | Lost |
| Massey | LIU -11.6 (+9.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.3 (+27.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIU -10.6 (+8.6) | 143.1 (+36.9) | 15% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIU -10.0 (+8.0) | 142.7 (+37.3) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIU -10.7 (+8.7) | 143.6 (+36.4) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LIU -10.8 (+8.8) | 144.5 (+35.5) | 16% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | LIU 67 – 63 SFPA |
| Mar 8, 2025 | SFPA 71 – 68 LIU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | SFPA 74 – 64 LIU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | LIU 64 – 51 SFPA |
| Feb 4, 2024 | LIU 70 – 67 SFPA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFPA | LIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-24 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 15-3 |
| Home | 5-8 | 14-1 |
| Away | 2-14 | 10-9 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.0 | 73.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 83.1 | 71.7 |
| Massey | -16.6 (#356) | -2.1 (#203) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.94 (#355) | -0.06 (#169) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.92 (#356) | -0.17 (#176) |
| RPI | 0.392 (#354) | 0.515 (#143) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFPA | LIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 30.4 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 35.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.2% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 66.0% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.7% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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