Betting Lines
| Spread | SFPA -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
| Money | SFPA -120 LIU +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFPA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFPA +10 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | SFPA -0.2 (+9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.8 (+1.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIU -1.2 (+11.2) | 132.1 (+5.9) | 40% ✗ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | LIU -0.7 (+10.7) | 131.8 (+6.2) | 47% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | LIU -0.8 (+10.8) | 133.0 (+5.0) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LIU -0.6 (+10.6) | 133.3 (+4.7) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | LIU 91 – 89 SFPA |
| Jan 10, 2026 | LIU 67 – 63 SFPA |
| Mar 8, 2025 | SFPA 71 – 68 LIU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | LIU 64 – 51 SFPA |
| Feb 4, 2024 | LIU 70 – 67 SFPA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFPA | LIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 12-4 |
| Home | 10-4 | 10-5 |
| Away | 6-13 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.0 | 65.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 66.5 |
| Massey | -10.8 (#327) | -7.6 (#289) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.62 (#311) | -1.15 (#268) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.23 (#314) | -1.52 (#276) |
| RPI | 0.436 (#283) | 0.441 (#274) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFPA | LIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 23.9% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 15.8% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 34.9% |
Game Analysis
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