Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | MER -198 WOF +164 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MER +12 | 206 | Won |
| Massey | MER -9.7 (+2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.0 (+50.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -7.2 (+4.8) | 151.8 (+54.2) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -5.5 (+6.5) | 151.5 (+54.5) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -6.6 (+5.4) | 149.9 (+56.1) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MER -6.2 (+5.8) | 152.2 (+53.8) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | WOF 80 – 77 MER |
| Feb 8, 2025 | WOF 77 – 66 MER |
| Jan 18, 2025 | WOF 69 – 49 MER |
| Feb 15, 2024 | WOF 73 – 60 MER |
| Jan 11, 2024 | WOF 74 – 73 MER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | WOF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 11-7 |
| Home | 14-1 | 10-5 |
| Away | 5-11 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.1 | 78.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.8 | 78.6 |
| Massey | 2.3 (#135) | -3.7 (#229) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.12 (#165) | 0.17 (#161) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.08 (#166) | -0.20 (#185) |
| RPI | 0.518 (#136) | 0.491 (#190) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | WOF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 28.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 64.5% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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