Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | MER -138 WOF +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WOF +13 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | MER -1.3 (-14.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.3 (-10.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -0.3 (-13.3) | 141.1 (-8.1) | 51% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -0.4 (-13.4) | 139.3 (-6.3) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -0.0 (-13.0) | 139.2 (-6.2) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MER -0.0 (-13.0) | 140.2 (-7.2) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | WOF 80 – 77 MER |
| Jan 10, 2026 | MER 109 – 97 WOF |
| Feb 8, 2025 | WOF 77 – 66 MER |
| Jan 18, 2025 | WOF 69 – 49 MER |
| Jan 11, 2024 | WOF 74 – 73 MER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | WOF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 10-8 |
| Home | 10-6 | 11-2 |
| Away | 4-9 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 73.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 75.3 |
| Massey | -4.2 (#246) | -2.1 (#205) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.64 (#233) | 0.15 (#165) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.93 (#252) | -0.14 (#182) |
| RPI | 0.472 (#226) | 0.511 (#149) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | WOF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 17.2% | 18.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 13.7% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.1% | 26.7% |
Game Analysis
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