Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | WOF +120 MER -142 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WOF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WOF +3 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | MER -3.2 (+6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.4 (-6.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -2.6 (+5.6) | 157.5 (-0.5) | 39% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -1.3 (+4.3) | 159.1 (-2.1) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -2.0 (+5.0) | 156.0 (+1.0) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MER -2.2 (+5.2) | 157.6 (-0.6) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | MER 109 – 97 WOF |
| Feb 8, 2025 | WOF 77 – 66 MER |
| Jan 18, 2025 | WOF 69 – 49 MER |
| Feb 15, 2024 | WOF 73 – 60 MER |
| Jan 11, 2024 | WOF 74 – 73 MER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WOF | MER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 11-7 |
| Home | 10-5 | 14-1 |
| Away | 9-7 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.4 | 80.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.6 | 77.8 |
| Massey | -4.2 (#231) | 2.3 (#138) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.03 (#174) | 0.45 (#124) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.51 (#205) | 0.43 (#131) |
| RPI | 0.498 (#184) | 0.544 (#91) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WOF | MER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 33.9% |
| FT Rate | 28.1% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.9% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 65.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.2% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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