Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | MUR -900 VAL +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MUR +13 | 171 | Won |
| Massey | MUR -13.7 (-0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.9 (+15.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MUR -11.9 (+1.1) | 148.7 (+22.3) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -10.8 (+2.2) | 150.9 (+20.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MUR -11.3 (+1.7) | 146.8 (+24.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MUR -11.8 (+1.2) | 147.7 (+23.3) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2025 | MUR 85 – 79 VAL |
| Feb 8, 2025 | MUR 74 – 56 VAL |
| Jan 11, 2025 | MUR 58 – 47 VAL |
| Feb 24, 2024 | MUR 80 – 68 VAL |
| Mar 3, 2023 | MUR 78 – 50 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MUR | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 11-9 |
| Home | 12-3 | 13-4 |
| Away | 5-7 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.1 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.2 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 8.8 (#73) | -1.3 (#189) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.74 (#62) | -0.54 (#222) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.06 (#71) | -0.59 (#210) |
| RPI | 0.564 (#74) | 0.454 (#257) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MUR | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 39.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.3% | 44.8% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 35.4% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 30.5% | 29.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 29.8% |
Game Analysis
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