Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | MUR -1000 VAL +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MUR +12 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | MUR -12.9 (-0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.7 (+9.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MUR -12.2 (-0.2) | 144.8 (+3.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -10.1 (+1.9) | 142.7 (+5.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MUR -11.1 (+0.9) | 142.2 (+5.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MUR -12.0 (-0.0) | 144.3 (+3.7) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | MUR 92 – 79 VAL |
| Dec 21, 2025 | MUR 85 – 79 VAL |
| Feb 8, 2025 | MUR 74 – 56 VAL |
| Jan 11, 2025 | MUR 58 – 47 VAL |
| Mar 3, 2023 | MUR 78 – 50 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MUR | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 3-17 |
| Home | 8-8 | 6-11 |
| Away | 4-9 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.1 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 76.0 |
| Massey | 2.2 (#135) | -7.4 (#294) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.22 (#192) | -1.47 (#305) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.23 (#153) | -1.39 (#288) |
| RPI | 0.503 (#171) | 0.436 (#298) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MUR | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 17.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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