Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | VAL +205 MUR -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MUR +6 | 164 | Lost |
| Massey | MUR -7.6 (+1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.5 (+5.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MUR -5.6 (-0.4) | 153.7 (+10.3) | 33% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -6.3 (+0.3) | 155.7 (+8.3) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MUR -7.0 (+1.0) | 150.8 (+13.2) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MUR -6.4 (+0.4) | 151.0 (+13.0) | 27% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | MUR 92 – 79 VAL |
| Feb 8, 2025 | MUR 74 – 56 VAL |
| Jan 11, 2025 | MUR 58 – 47 VAL |
| Feb 24, 2024 | MUR 80 – 68 VAL |
| Mar 3, 2023 | MUR 78 – 50 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 12-8 |
| Home | 13-4 | 12-3 |
| Away | 4-10 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 83.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 80.2 |
| Massey | -3.7 (#216) | 8.2 (#77) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.28 (#277) | 1.30 (#87) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.56 (#265) | 1.60 (#91) |
| RPI | 0.418 (#311) | 0.535 (#113) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.2% | 48.0% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 37.8% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.8 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.2% | 57.0% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 34.4% | 37.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 30.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 66.4% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.4% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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