Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | VAL +110 MUR -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MUR +18 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | MUR -0.5 (-17.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.1 (-19.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAL -0.2 (-18.2) | 145.1 (-15.1) | 54% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -1.1 (-16.9) | 141.3 (-11.3) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAL -0.2 (-18.2) | 144.2 (-14.2) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MUR -0.1 (-17.9) | 144.5 (-14.5) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | MUR 92 – 79 VAL |
| Dec 21, 2025 | MUR 85 – 79 VAL |
| Jan 11, 2025 | MUR 58 – 47 VAL |
| Feb 24, 2024 | MUR 80 – 68 VAL |
| Mar 3, 2023 | MUR 78 – 50 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-19 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 9-11 |
| Home | 10-7 | 8-5 |
| Away | 3-10 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.3 | 70.2 |
| Massey | -3.9 (#231) | -0.2 (#167) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.76 (#239) | 0.02 (#173) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.11 (#244) | 0.02 (#168) |
| RPI | 0.452 (#261) | 0.501 (#176) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 28.9% | 29.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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