Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | MUR -320 VAL +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MUR +11 | 105 | Won |
| Massey | MUR -8.6 (+2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.3 (-49.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MUR -6.4 (+4.6) | 146.8 (-41.8) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -7.1 (+3.9) | 145.4 (-40.4) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MUR -6.1 (+4.9) | 147.5 (-42.5) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MUR -6.5 (+4.5) | 148.6 (-43.6) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | MUR 92 – 79 VAL |
| Dec 21, 2025 | MUR 85 – 79 VAL |
| Feb 8, 2025 | MUR 74 – 56 VAL |
| Feb 24, 2024 | MUR 80 – 68 VAL |
| Mar 3, 2023 | MUR 78 – 50 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MUR | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 15-19 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 6-14 |
| Home | 8-5 | 10-7 |
| Away | 5-8 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 75.3 |
| Massey | 2.9 (#117) | -1.7 (#193) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.50 (#128) | 0.11 (#162) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.80 (#115) | -0.06 (#174) |
| RPI | 0.538 (#94) | 0.497 (#176) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MUR | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 32.4% | 33.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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