Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | MUR -110 VAL +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MUR +28 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | MUR -2.5 (+25.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.1 (-16.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -5.9 (+22.1) | 140.4 (-12.4) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MUR -2.9 (+25.1) | 142.1 (-14.1) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MUR -3.1 (+24.9) | 140.5 (-12.5) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MUR -3.2 (+24.8) | 143.4 (-15.4) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | MUR 92 – 79 VAL |
| Dec 21, 2025 | MUR 85 – 79 VAL |
| Feb 8, 2025 | MUR 74 – 56 VAL |
| Jan 11, 2025 | MUR 58 – 47 VAL |
| Feb 24, 2024 | MUR 80 – 68 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MUR | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 5-15 |
| Home | 11-2 | 8-7 |
| Away | 3-11 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 68.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 74.0 |
| Massey | -3.8 (#235) | -6.3 (#282) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.12 (#156) | -1.13 (#280) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.12 (#179) | -1.36 (#276) |
| RPI | 0.502 (#178) | 0.440 (#296) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MUR | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 30.0% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 22.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 75.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.4% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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