Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | INST -340 EVAN +270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EVAN +3 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | INST -7.6 (-10.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.5 (-4.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -4.9 (-7.9) | 141.7 (-0.7) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -4.1 (-7.1) | 137.9 (+3.1) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | INST -4.7 (-7.7) | 137.7 (+3.3) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -4.2 (-7.2) | 139.0 (+2.0) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | INST 84 – 63 EVAN |
| Feb 20, 2025 | EVAN 79 – 74 INST |
| Jan 4, 2025 | INST 66 – 62 EVAN |
| Feb 29, 2024 | INST 85 – 67 EVAN |
| Jan 4, 2024 | INST 87 – 73 EVAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 3-17 |
| Home | 8-7 | 5-10 |
| Away | 3-12 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 65.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 78.3 |
| Massey | -2.8 (#210) | -6.7 (#266) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.61 (#232) | -1.73 (#309) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.14 (#242) | -1.74 (#276) |
| RPI | 0.475 (#226) | 0.458 (#245) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 28.1% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 23.4% | 24.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.1% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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