Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | EVAN +105 INST -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EVAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +21 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | INST -1.5 (-19.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.0 (-1.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -0.5 (-20.5) | 145.0 (+2.0) | 48% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -1.5 (-19.5) | 146.3 (+0.7) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -0.4 (-20.6) | 142.3 (+4.7) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | INST -0.5 (-20.5) | 143.4 (+3.6) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | EVAN 72 – 69 INST |
| Feb 20, 2025 | EVAN 79 – 74 INST |
| Jan 4, 2025 | INST 66 – 62 EVAN |
| Feb 29, 2024 | INST 85 – 67 EVAN |
| Jan 4, 2024 | INST 87 – 73 EVAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EVAN | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 4-16 |
| Home | 5-10 | 8-7 |
| Away | 1-12 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.8 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.3 | 75.1 |
| Massey | -7.1 (#274) | -2.6 (#205) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.53 (#299) | -1.00 (#256) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.75 (#283) | -1.34 (#261) |
| RPI | 0.452 (#263) | 0.453 (#262) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EVAN | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 23.6% | 24.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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