Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | INST -1800 EVAN +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +14 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | INST -14.0 (+0.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.7 (-1.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -14.7 (-0.7) | 157.5 (+2.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -12.6 (+1.4) | 155.8 (+4.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | INST -12.7 (+1.3) | 156.1 (+3.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -13.5 (+0.5) | 157.5 (+2.5) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | INST 84 – 63 EVAN |
| Jan 10, 2026 | EVAN 72 – 69 INST |
| Feb 20, 2025 | EVAN 79 – 74 INST |
| Jan 4, 2025 | INST 66 – 62 EVAN |
| Feb 29, 2024 | INST 85 – 67 EVAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-7 | 17-18 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 6-14 |
| Home | 16-1 | 10-5 |
| Away | 9-4 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.7 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 74.0 |
| Massey | 13.0 (#28) | 3.5 (#113) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.14 (#34) | 1.43 (#74) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.60 (#41) | 1.62 (#80) |
| RPI | 0.587 (#45) | 0.574 (#66) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.4% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 41.3% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 1.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 61.2% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 23.1% | 23.1% |
| FT Rate | 28.3% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 75.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
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