Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | EVAN +450 INST -600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EVAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +18 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | INST -11.0 (-7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.8 (-5.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -11.0 (-7.0) | 155.4 (-3.4) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -9.7 (-8.3) | 154.0 (-2.0) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | INST -10.4 (-7.6) | 154.8 (-2.8) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -9.9 (-8.1) | 155.4 (-3.4) | 20% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | INST 84 – 63 EVAN |
| Jan 10, 2026 | EVAN 72 – 69 INST |
| Feb 20, 2025 | EVAN 79 – 74 INST |
| Jan 4, 2025 | INST 66 – 62 EVAN |
| Jan 4, 2024 | INST 87 – 73 EVAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EVAN | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-18 | 32-7 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 17-3 |
| Home | 10-5 | 16-1 |
| Away | 4-11 | 9-4 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 7-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 84.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.0 | 73.5 |
| Massey | -2.3 (#201) | 12.0 (#41) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.03 (#166) | 2.15 (#25) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.08 (#170) | 2.44 (#36) |
| RPI | 0.502 (#169) | 0.587 (#41) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EVAN | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 50.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 59.4% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 21.3% | 23.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 76.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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