Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | EVAN +145 INST -170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EVAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +4 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | INST -3.2 (-0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.2 (-26.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -3.4 (-0.6) | 149.7 (-21.7) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -2.5 (-1.5) | 145.4 (-17.4) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | INST -2.8 (-1.2) | 145.4 (-17.4) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -1.9 (-2.1) | 147.1 (-19.1) | 39% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | INST 84 – 63 EVAN |
| Jan 10, 2026 | EVAN 72 – 69 INST |
| Feb 20, 2025 | EVAN 79 – 74 INST |
| Feb 29, 2024 | INST 85 – 67 EVAN |
| Jan 4, 2024 | INST 87 – 73 EVAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EVAN | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 8-12 |
| Home | 7-9 | 8-6 |
| Away | 4-11 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.1 | 79.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 81.5 |
| Massey | -8.8 (#310) | -1.5 (#183) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.28 (#284) | -0.51 (#221) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.44 (#268) | -0.76 (#226) |
| RPI | 0.425 (#306) | 0.467 (#233) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EVAN | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 27.6% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.6% | 57.8% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 21.1% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 26.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.3% | 28.2% |
Game Analysis
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