Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | INST -340 EVAN +270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EVAN +5 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | INST -6.1 (-11.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.6 (+1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -4.5 (-9.5) | 150.0 (+3.0) | 67% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -7.7 (-12.7) | 148.1 (+4.9) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -4.3 (-9.3) | 148.1 (+4.9) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | INST -4.6 (-9.6) | 150.1 (+2.9) | 69% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | INST 84 – 63 EVAN |
| Jan 10, 2026 | EVAN 72 – 69 INST |
| Jan 4, 2025 | INST 66 – 62 EVAN |
| Feb 29, 2024 | INST 85 – 67 EVAN |
| Jan 4, 2024 | INST 87 – 73 EVAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 8-12 |
| Home | 8-6 | 7-9 |
| Away | 4-9 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.0 | 65.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.5 | 71.4 |
| Massey | -2.8 (#215) | -5.7 (#259) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.17 (#187) | -0.66 (#231) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.29 (#190) | -0.77 (#228) |
| RPI | 0.488 (#203) | 0.470 (#234) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 30.0% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 23.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.6% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.7% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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