Betting Lines
| Spread | MOST -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | MOST -166 FIU +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MOST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MOST +8 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | MOST -1.3 (+6.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.8 (-2.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MOST -2.5 (+5.5) | 146.9 (+3.1) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MOST -1.8 (+6.2) | 146.4 (+3.6) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MOST -1.4 (+6.6) | 148.2 (+1.8) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MOST -1.2 (+6.8) | 148.5 (+1.5) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 10, 2026 | MOST 75 – 72 FIU |
| Feb 21, 2026 | FIU 70 – 67 MOST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MOST | FIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 8-12 |
| Home | 11-7 | 12-6 |
| Away | 3-10 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.1 | 77.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 79.1 |
| Massey | -2.7 (#208) | -0.3 (#174) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.24 (#194) | -0.22 (#189) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.29 (#190) | -0.16 (#180) |
| RPI | 0.481 (#209) | 0.498 (#175) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MOST | FIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 31.7% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 65.2% | 62.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.1% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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