Betting Lines
| Spread | MISS -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | MISS -115 MIZ -105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MISS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MISS +7 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | MISS -1.3 (+5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.2 (-1.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MISS -0.6 (+6.4) | 143.2 (+1.8) | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MISS -2.5 (+4.5) | 141.1 (+3.9) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIZ -0.0 (+7.0) | 142.5 (+2.5) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MISS -0.1 (+6.9) | 143.9 (+1.1) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 25, 2025 | MIZ 83 – 75 MISS |
| Mar 3, 2024 | MISS 84 – 78 MIZ |
| Feb 18, 2024 | MISS 79 – 76 MIZ |
| Mar 4, 2023 | MIZ 82 – 77 MISS |
| Jan 25, 2023 | MIZ 89 – 77 MISS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MISS | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-20 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 10-8 |
| Home | 7-9 | 15-3 |
| Away | 3-7 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 79.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 75.5 |
| Massey | 6.5 (#98) | 8.9 (#72) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.51 (#131) | 2.32 (#38) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.95 (#113) | 3.20 (#35) |
| RPI | 0.505 (#162) | 0.551 (#87) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MISS | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 51.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 58.1% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 36.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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