Betting Lines
| Spread | MIZ -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | MISS +115 MIZ -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MISS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIZ +12 | 166 | Lost |
| Massey | MISS -0.5 (-12.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.8 (+17.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MISS -0.5 (-12.5) | 146.9 (+19.1) | 45% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MISS -1.3 (-13.3) | 145.5 (+20.5) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MISS -0.9 (-12.9) | 145.1 (+20.9) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MISS -0.6 (-12.6) | 146.2 (+19.8) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | MISS 76 – 69 MIZ |
| Jan 25, 2025 | MIZ 83 – 75 MISS |
| Mar 3, 2024 | MISS 84 – 78 MIZ |
| Feb 18, 2024 | MISS 79 – 76 MIZ |
| Mar 4, 2023 | MIZ 82 – 77 MISS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MISS | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 11-7 |
| Home | 7-10 | 16-3 |
| Away | 2-9 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.5 | 78.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 74.4 |
| Massey | 5.2 (#96) | 8.3 (#65) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.57 (#124) | 1.98 (#38) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.07 (#102) | 2.22 (#49) |
| RPI | 0.546 (#96) | 0.582 (#48) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MISS | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 54.7% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 25.2% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 63.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 26.9% |
Game Analysis
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