Betting Lines
| Spread | MISS -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | MISS -1000 MIZ +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MISS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MISS +3 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | MISS -10.0 (-7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.8 (+10.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MISS -8.6 (-5.6) | 145.5 (+9.5) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MISS -9.8 (-6.8) | 144.9 (+10.1) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MISS -9.9 (-6.9) | 144.3 (+10.7) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MISS -10.2 (-7.2) | 146.1 (+8.9) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | MISS 76 – 69 MIZ |
| Jan 25, 2025 | MIZ 83 – 75 MISS |
| Mar 3, 2024 | MISS 84 – 78 MIZ |
| Mar 4, 2023 | MIZ 82 – 77 MISS |
| Jan 25, 2023 | MIZ 89 – 77 MISS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MISS | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 0-18 |
| Home | 14-4 | 6-11 |
| Away | 4-7 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L3 | L19 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 76.2 |
| Massey | 8.0 (#75) | 1.4 (#144) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.29 (#23) | -0.34 (#206) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.66 (#28) | -0.18 (#184) |
| RPI | 0.605 (#28) | 0.475 (#225) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MISS | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.9% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.53 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 65.1% | 65.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 29.2% |
Game Analysis
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