Betting Lines
| Spread | MIZ -9.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIZ +5 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | MIZ -8.9 (-3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.8 (+8.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIZ -8.8 (-3.8) | 148.7 (+10.3) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIZ -7.8 (-2.8) | 146.4 (+12.6) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIZ -8.5 (-3.5) | 149.0 (+10.0) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIZ -8.2 (-3.2) | 148.4 (+10.6) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | MISS 76 – 69 MIZ |
| Jan 25, 2025 | MIZ 83 – 75 MISS |
| Mar 3, 2024 | MISS 84 – 78 MIZ |
| Feb 18, 2024 | MISS 79 – 76 MIZ |
| Jan 25, 2023 | MIZ 89 – 77 MISS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIZ | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 3-15 |
| Home | 16-3 | 7-10 |
| Away | 5-5 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 69.1 |
| Massey | 9.1 (#58) | 3.7 (#115) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.27 (#24) | 0.19 (#155) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.46 (#36) | 0.55 (#129) |
| RPI | 0.585 (#38) | 0.503 (#174) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIZ | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 30.0% |
| REB / G | 30.6 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 33.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.4% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 62.0% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.0% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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