Betting Lines
| Spread | MIZ -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | MIZ -120 MISS -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIZ +8 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | MIZ -1.8 (+6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.7 (+11.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIZ -2.4 (+5.6) | 143.5 (+14.5) | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIZ -2.1 (+5.9) | 142.6 (+15.4) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIZ -2.3 (+5.7) | 142.1 (+15.9) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIZ -2.0 (+6.0) | 141.5 (+16.5) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | MISS 76 – 69 MIZ |
| Mar 3, 2024 | MISS 84 – 78 MIZ |
| Feb 18, 2024 | MISS 79 – 76 MIZ |
| Mar 4, 2023 | MIZ 82 – 77 MISS |
| Jan 25, 2023 | MIZ 89 – 77 MISS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIZ | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 18-2 | 13-3 |
| Away | 3-7 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.6 | 77.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.6 | 71.7 |
| Massey | 15.1 (#28) | 16.6 (#20) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.09 (#17) | 3.41 (#12) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.70 (#24) | 4.87 (#7) |
| RPI | 0.597 (#39) | 0.633 (#19) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIZ | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.4% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 13.4% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 35.8% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 23.0% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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