Betting Lines
| Spread | UCD -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 168.5 Under |
| Money | CP -105 UCD -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CP +6 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | UCD -0.7 (+6.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 169.2 (-7.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCD -1.2 (+7.2) | 158.7 (+3.3) | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CP -0.9 (+5.1) | 157.6 (+4.4) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCD -0.6 (+6.6) | 156.9 (+5.1) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCD -0.2 (+6.2) | 156.4 (+5.6) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | UCD 67 – 58 CP |
| Mar 13, 2025 | CP 86 – 76 UCD |
| Jan 17, 2025 | UCD 65 – 54 CP |
| Dec 6, 2024 | UCD 77 – 66 CP |
| Feb 3, 2024 | UCD 59 – 52 CP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CP | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 11-9 |
| Home | 8-6 | 12-4 |
| Away | 6-11 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 76.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 85.3 | 76.0 |
| Massey | -4.4 (#239) | -0.0 (#166) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.85 (#246) | 0.37 (#143) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.30 (#251) | 0.86 (#119) |
| RPI | 0.451 (#262) | 0.517 (#138) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CP | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 55.3% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 29.4% | 30.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.6% | 29.5% |
Game Analysis
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